1) A fairly well-informed discussion on NPR the other day described the new "consensus" (ahem.) The Fiscal Cliff won't be a catastrophe as many reckoned earlier but more like a slow bleed, with anticipated decline on various econ/mkt factors. More bearishly, I suppose the stock mkt has a -25% downside here, warranting reallocation (REDUCING RISK, RAISING CASH and ADDING HEDGES in spec paper portfolios.) But I'm a bear by nature and very cynical that 'problems unsolved must get worse.'
2) Germany's audit of NYFed Au: nada. Call for withdrawing said Au from USA > Ger: maybe marginally bullish for Au, on the news/interest.
3) 'Something's Gotta Give' : I agree, but what? Perhaps there's a spookier outlier (exogenous event) that will tank mkts instead? idk.
4) Silver @ $50.: I think very very unlikely until AFTER the next sharp selloff/flash crash/leg of deflation is over and mkts have been juiced by yet another round of QE. Iminently, I foresee volatility with bigger downside risk: POS @ $20. = -43% decline off the near peak. That's the lower end of any sharp shock I'd "anticipate." All this printing/easing of the past few years - and very little financial reform - has NOT made the mkts 'more stable' so know-your-risk and avoid panic surprises.
Gold @ 1850: more likely in mid-Spring 2013 IF the winter retrace is far weaker than I imagine, less than -11%: 1792 > 1600 ...... 1600 > 1850 = 15.6%.
Just my two cents.
Source: http://www.cointalk.com/t217473/
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